Betting NFL Teasers

 

If you have any experience in sports betting, you at least have an idea of what a teaser bet is. A teaser is simply a parlay bet in which you have the opportunity to adjust the spread in your favor.

Because of that, the payouts aren’t as high as a regular parlay, but they can be greater than betting games individually.

The most common teaser at online sportsbooks is the NFL two-team, six-point teaser. The NFL lends itself to teaser bets because of somewhat predictable scoring. In NFL games, most games end with a scoring margin of 3 or 7 points. 

These are just a few of the key numbers involved in betting NFL teasers. More games end with margins of 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, and 14 points than any other. When betting NFL teasers, it’s important to understand these key numbers. Here’s why.

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Cross Key Numbers

The easiest way to give yourself a better shot at winning a teaser bet is to cross certain key numbers. This is best explained using an example. 

                        Washington     +2.5 (-110)                  Denver            +8.5 (-110)

                        NY Giants       -2.5 (-110)                   Kansas City     -8.5 (-110)

In putting together an NFL teaser, it’s best to look for short underdogs and longer favorites. In the two games above, we have Washington as a 2.5-point underdog and Kansas City as an 8.5-point favorite.

With our six points, we can take the Football Team to +8.5 and the Chiefs down to -2.5. In doing so, notice in each case we passed the common final margins of victory of 3, 4, 6, and 7. 

If Washington loses by eight points or less or wins outright and Kansas City wins by a field goal or more, this NFL teaser bet is a winner. Betting NFL teasers can be very profitable, but they come with the added risk.

Numbers to Know

Since 2003, any team teased by six points covered in 69 percent of NFL games. That’s good, but not good enough. In order to break even on teasers, bettors need teams to have a 72.4 percent or better chance of winning (after being teased).

Now, if you filter out and take only the games in which 3 and 7 would be crossed after the tease, you find some better numbers. Underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 have covered 75.3 percent of the time when teased six points. Favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 have covered 76 percent of the time after being teased by six points. 

That means sports bettors have the best chance of winning NFL teaser bets when they tease short underdogs and long favorites.

Another Consideration for Betting Teasers

Before finalizing an NFL teaser bet, you might want to take a quick look at the game total. Short underdogs in games with lower totals are the best to tease. 

Underdogs between +1.5 to +2.5 with a game total of 47 or less cover 77 percent of the time when teased by six points. That number drops significantly as the total increases over 47.

The bottom line is to look for underdogs in the range of +1.5 to +2.5 with low game totals and favorites in the range of -7.5 to -8.5 to have the best success in betting NFL teasers.

Have you ever considered buying sports picks? We outlined what to look for when choosing the right handicapper.