Will he or won’t he? That’s the big question surrounding Sunday’s AFC championship game. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes suffered a concussion in last week’s divisional round win over Cleveland and has yet to clear all the steps of the NFL’s protocol.

The Chiefs have the NFL’s best passing offense and Mahomes is the key to its production. Veteran Chad Henne is good, but he is no Mahomes. Whether Mahomes plays or not, there is still good reason for bettors to back the Bills.

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Game: Buffalo Bills (15-3, 12-6 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 6-10-1 ATS)

When: 6:40 PM ET, Sunday, January 24, 2021

Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

Current Line: KC -3   Total: 53.5

TV Coverage: CBS

Why the Chiefs?

Novice bettors and sports handicappers all know that Kansas City started the 2020 season 7-1 and 6-2 ATS. Since then, the Chiefs have failed to cover a spread going 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine games. Only one team since 2000 has won a Super Bowl with a sub-.500 ATS record. That was the 2012 Baltimore Ravens who went 6-9-1 ATS.

One of the big reasons why the Chiefs have failed to cover in their past nine games is red zone defense. For the season, Kansas City was the worst team in the league in opponent red zone touchdown conversion - 76.6 percent.

That percentage is even worse over the second half of the regular season. Chiefs opponents scored touchdowns on 24-of-30 trips to Kansas City’s red zone over the final eight weeks of the season. The only reason why the Chiefs were able to go 8-1 SU in their last nine is because their own red zone touchdown conversion rate is just as high.

The hook FINALLY worked in our favor in our last pick. Go check out our Panthers at Packers free pick.

Why the Bills?

Buffalo, on the other hand, has done what great teams do - win and cover. The Bills have won their last eight games in a row and are 9-1 ATS in their last ten. Buffalo won the last six games of the regular season by an average margin of 19.9 points.

Must Read: Why a Betting Budget is a Must

The only game the Bills haven’t covered in their last ten games was the wild card round win over Indianapolis. Buffalo led 24-10 in the fourth quarter before prevailing 27-24.

Last week, the Bills defense held the league’s best rushing offense to 150 yards rushing and reigning league MVP Lamar Jackson to just 34 on nine carries. More importantly, Buffalo kept Baltimore out of the end zone in a 17-3 victory.

Did you miss Buffalo’s defense stopping Baltimore? Check out that and all the rest of last week’s action at NFL Divisional Round by the numbers.

Bills @ Chiefs Free Pick

In Kansas City’s last eight wins, the margins of victory have been 5, 2, 4, 3, 6, 6, 3, and 3. Sunday’s spread is 3 and the Chiefs have done little over the latter half of the season to show that they can cover.

In their last ten games, Buffalo has been an underdog four times. The Bills won three of those outright and the only time they didn’t cover was a 32-30 loss to Arizona. That was the game won on the final play, a Kyler Murray-to-DeAndre Hopkins Hail Mary.

Even with Mahomes at quarterback, there is plenty of reason to back the Bills.

NFL Free Pick:  BUFFALO +3