Preparing to Bet the Super Bowl Champion

This is how you can prepare to bet the Super Bowl champion.

Key Points

– Do not blindly bet the Super Bowl champion.

– There are several numerical approaches that can be used to bet the Super Bowl champion.

Preparing to Bet the Super Bowl Champion

Billions of dollars are wagered on the Super Bowl every year. Fans love it, but they would love it even more if they could win their bets. What if there was a way to predict the Super Bowl winner?

There is a way. It can be challenging as the Super Bowl often has an inflated point spread because of the amount of public betting. That is to be expected though as the game is the most-watched sporting event of the year.

Bookies love the big game too. It brings in a lot of action at sportsbooks. Here is the 2022 NFL futures update where you can see which teams are favored to win.

The question for many bettors is if they can actually make a strong prediction as to which team will win the Super Bowl. The answer to that should be a resounding yes.

There is a way that bettors can bet the Super Bowl champion using a certain set of numbers.

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The Numerical Approach

The easiest way to bet the Super Bowl champion with confidence involves a straightforward stat comparison of the two teams. Bettors, of course, have to wait until the conference championship games are over before they begin analyzing the numbers.

With this approach, 15 different statistical categories are compared. Teams are awarded points based on how they performed during the regular season. The total number of points available is 60 and the team with the higher point total typically wins the Super Bowl.

The key here is the size of the difference between the two teams. The prediction is much more accurate if there is a significant difference between the teams’ combined totals. Speaking of totals, bettors should consider betting football over under odds at the Super Bowl.

How to Bet the Super Bowl Champion

The analysis is pretty simple. Make two columns: one for the AFC champ and the other for the NFC winner. Keep a running total of the points in each category. The first seven are the most important as they usually reveal the winner.

It all starts with recent Super Bowl performances. If either team has won it all in the previous three seasons, give the team 10 points. Teams that have won recently have an advantage as they have won the Super Bowl before.

If one of the teams is playing in its first-ever Super Bowl, give the opponent eight points. Most teams playing in their first Super Bowl do not play that well. The only modern-day team that has really excelled in its first Super Bowl was Tampa Bay back in 2002.

Eight points is then given to the team that faced the fewer number of runs during the regular season. This means the team faced more pass plays and highlights a team’s proficiency in playing pass defense. The NFL is a passing league and teams that defend the pass better typically win more games.

The team with the better per-carry rush average on defense gains an extra five points. Even though passing is typically a bigger part of the game, rush defense is still respected, just not to the same extent as pass defense.

The team that scored more kick and punt return touchdowns gets four points. The team with the better ATS record also gets four points. The team with fewer penalty yards gets four points.

Using just these seven categories, you can usually predict the Super Bowl champion. However, to get a more accurate reading, you can add these categories as well.

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A Clearer Picture of the Winner

To get an even better picture of which team will win, you can add these to your list. The team with the higher yards per pass attempt gets 3.5 points. Before you move on, make sure you have a hassle-free sportsbook with all the amenities.

Then, add 3.5 points to the team with the defense that has allowed the fewest overall points. You can also add three points to the team that allowed the fewest number of rushing touchdowns. Some may prefer to use rushing yards and go with the team that allowed the least. Either way, it’s a strong indicator of success.

As an extra, you could add three points to the team that records the most overall sacks during the regular season. Including sacks makes sense these days with the importance of the passing game. More quarterbacks than any other position with the Super Bowl MVP. Teams that can sack that Super Bowl quarterback are bound to have some success.

The final four categories are each worth one point. The team with the higher pass completion percentage gets one. The team that punted less, the team with the better per-carry average on defense, and the team that saw fewer offensive pass attempts all get one point each.

Example of How to Bet the Super Bowl Champion

We’ll use the 2015 Super Bowl as an example. New England faced Seattle and, if you remember, the Patriots prevailed after what many felt was a poor play call inside the five-yard line on the game’s final play.

After the first seven items on the list, the Patriots held a 23-22 advantage. The reason they were so close was that both teams had been to a Super Bowl within the previous three seasons.

Adding in the final numbers, we find that New England held a 32-30 advantage. To find those numbers, bettors should have an online wagering portal that offers access to a plethora of information.

The final numbers would tell a bettor that the game is likely to be close. It was. Oddsmakers had made the Patriots 2-point favorites. In the end, New England covered with a 28-24 victory.

Final Note

This is one of several numerical methods that can be used to determine who will win the Super Bowl. This metric appeals to many because it is simple and efficient. It produces a single digit that is easy to read and has value. It’s one of many ways to win at sports betting.

Every statistic on the previous list was chosen because of its significance in determining the outcomes of NFL games. Teams that perform well in those categories typically win more games than they lose.

With a little statistical knowledge and some patience, anyone can bet the Super Bowl champion and win.