NFL Free
Pick | Bengals @ Ravens
It’s not
often that we see double-digit opening lines in the NFL, but when the Bengals
are coming to town it’s always possible.
Cincinnati,
fresh off its first win of the season, heads to Baltimore for an AFC North
clash with rival Baltimore. The Ravens, one of 2020’s Super
Bowl favorites, have beaten the Bengals in three straight and are
favored to win on Sunday by 13.5 points.
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It’s that
pesky division road underdog again, which is why the Bengals should intrigue
bettors.
Game:
Cincinnati Bengals (1-2-1, 3-0-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS)
When:
1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 11, 2020
Where:
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Current
Line: BAL -13.5 Total:
51.5
TV Coverage:
CBS
Remember,
NFL division opponents play each other twice per year. This will be the first
meeting of the season for Cincinnati and Baltimore.
When
playing a division team on the road, an underdog tends to outperform against
the point
spread by a significant enough margin. Through the
past 1,047 NFL divisional games, the road underdog is 540-474-33.
Examining
this a little deeper, we find that road dogs playing a divisional opponent
earlier in the season - September to November - have a 354-280-23 ATS record.
That drives the winning percentage from 51.6% to 53.9%.
The idea is
that later in the season the two division opponents have seen more film on each
other. They are more familiar with each other having played once, which tends
to give the road dog an advantage in the first game of the season.
Take last
season for example. Baltimore hosted Cincy in October of 2019. The Ravens won
23-17 as a 10.5-point favorite. Later in the year, the teams met again.
Baltimore won 49-13, making anyone siding with the Ravens on their free picks
look like a genius.
There is no
question the Ravens have the more talented roster. Reigning NFL MVP Lamar
Jackson is completing 67 percent of his passes for 769 yards and seven
touchdowns. He also leads the Ravens in rushing with 239 yards and one score.
The
Baltimore defense is stout again holding opponents to just 18.3 points per
game. The Chiefs are the only team to score more than 17 points against
Baltimore.
Editor’s
Choice: Take
a look at NFL Week 3 By the Numbers
While the
Bengals continue to find their way with rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, they
really aren’t all that bad. Cincy lost their first two games by three and five
points, respectively. They were a Carson Wentz late touchdown away from beating
Philadelphia instead settling for the tie.
Last week,
the Bengals were a one-point favorite - that doesn’t happen too often - and
beat Jacksonville by five.
Now,
Cincinnati has covered in each game of the 2020 season. The Bengals are 4-0-1
ATS in their last five games and they have had great success ATS when playing
Baltimore.
The Bengals
are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Ravens. They are also 5-1 ATS
against Baltimore on the road.
As good as
the Ravens are, it seems kind of odd that Baltimore opponents are 10-4 ATS with
Jackson as a home favorite. That just puts it over the edge.
NFL Free
Pick: BENGALS +13.5
Pick by
Coach Rick