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NFL Free Pick | Bengals @ Ravens

 

It’s not often that we see double-digit opening lines in the NFL, but when the Bengals are coming to town it’s always possible.

Cincinnati, fresh off its first win of the season, heads to Baltimore for an AFC North clash with rival Baltimore. The Ravens, one of 2020’s Super Bowl favorites, have beaten the Bengals in three straight and are favored to win on Sunday by 13.5 points.

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It’s that pesky division road underdog again, which is why the Bengals should intrigue bettors.

Game: Cincinnati Bengals (1-2-1, 3-0-1 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1, 2-1-1 ATS)

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 11, 2020

Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland

Current Line: BAL -13.5        Total: 51.5

TV Coverage: CBS

Remember, NFL division opponents play each other twice per year. This will be the first meeting of the season for Cincinnati and Baltimore.

When playing a division team on the road, an underdog tends to outperform against the point spread by a significant enough margin. Through the past 1,047 NFL divisional games, the road underdog is 540-474-33.

Examining this a little deeper, we find that road dogs playing a divisional opponent earlier in the season - September to November - have a 354-280-23 ATS record. That drives the winning percentage from 51.6% to 53.9%.

The idea is that later in the season the two division opponents have seen more film on each other. They are more familiar with each other having played once, which tends to give the road dog an advantage in the first game of the season.

Take last season for example. Baltimore hosted Cincy in October of 2019. The Ravens won 23-17 as a 10.5-point favorite. Later in the year, the teams met again. Baltimore won 49-13, making anyone siding with the Ravens on their free picks look like a genius.

There is no question the Ravens have the more talented roster. Reigning NFL MVP Lamar Jackson is completing 67 percent of his passes for 769 yards and seven touchdowns. He also leads the Ravens in rushing with 239 yards and one score.

The Baltimore defense is stout again holding opponents to just 18.3 points per game. The Chiefs are the only team to score more than 17 points against Baltimore.

Editor’s Choice: Take a look at NFL Week 3 By the Numbers

While the Bengals continue to find their way with rookie quarterback Joe Burrow, they really aren’t all that bad. Cincy lost their first two games by three and five points, respectively. They were a Carson Wentz late touchdown away from beating Philadelphia instead settling for the tie. 

Last week, the Bengals were a one-point favorite - that doesn’t happen too often - and beat Jacksonville by five.

Now, Cincinnati has covered in each game of the 2020 season. The Bengals are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games and they have had great success ATS when playing Baltimore.

The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Ravens. They are also 5-1 ATS against Baltimore on the road. 

As good as the Ravens are, it seems kind of odd that Baltimore opponents are 10-4 ATS with Jackson as a home favorite. That just puts it over the edge.

NFL Free Pick: BENGALS +13.5

Pick by Coach Rick





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